Influence of advanced footwear technology on sub-2 hour marathon and other top running performances

TL;DR

This study analyzes how advanced footwear technology has influenced top marathon performances and the likelihood of achieving a sub-two hour marathon in official races, using statistical analysis of performance data from 2001 to 2019.

Contribution

It provides a statistical assessment of the impact of footwear technology on marathon performance improvements and future probabilities of sub-two hour marathons.

Findings

Performance-enhancing effect of footwear technology confirmed.

10% increase in probability of new marathon world record in 2021.

Sub-two hour marathon in official races unlikely before 2025.

Abstract

In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike's Alphafly shoes. Despite being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn't officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. Besides, Kipchoge's use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. In this work, we assess the potential influence of advanced footwear technology and the likelihood of a sub-two hour marathon in official races, by studying the evolution of running top performances from 2001 to 2019 for long distances ranging from 10km to marathon. The analysis is performed using extreme value theory, a field of statistics dealing with analysis of rare events. We find a significant evidence of performance-enhancement effect with a 10% increase of the probability that a new world record for marathon-men discipline is set in 2021. However, results suggest that achieving a sub-two hour marathon in an official race in 2021 is still very unlikely, and exceeds 10% probability only by 2025.