The spatial dissemination of COVID-19 and associated socio-economic consequences

TL;DR

This study analyzes how COVID-19 spread spatially using mobility data, revealing local diffusion patterns and assessing social and economic impacts of the pandemic's progression and control measures.

Contribution

It demonstrates that COVID-19 spread primarily through local diffusion in mobility networks and models potential social consequences based on spatial outbreak scenarios.

Findings

COVID-19 spread explained by local diffusion in mobility networks

Mobility reductions and network changes during epidemic control

Implications for disease mitigation and socio-economic impact assessment

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 can be well explained by a local diffusion process in the mobility network rather than a global diffusion process, indicating the effectiveness of the implemented disease prevention and control measures. Based on the constructed case prediction model, it is estimated that there could be distinct social consequences if the COVID-19 outbreak happened in different areas. During the epidemic control period, human mobility experienced substantial reductions and the mobility network underwent remarkable local and global structural changes toward containing the spread of COVID-19. Our work has important implications for the mitigation of disease and the evaluation of the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 on society.