Black Swans in Astronomical Data

TL;DR

This paper develops a statistical framework to interpret rare astronomical events, estimating recurrence rates and guiding future observations based on the assumption of stochastic repetition at an unknown rate.

Contribution

It introduces a novel probabilistic approach for analyzing and predicting the recurrence of rare astronomical phenomena, aiding observational strategies.

Findings

Derived expressions for the posterior distribution of event rate and recurrence time.

Provided rule-of-thumb bounds for recurrence times with confidence levels.

Demonstrated application to real astronomical data, including TESS and Breakthrough Listen signals.

Abstract

Astronomy has always been propelled by the discovery of new phenomena lacking precedent, often followed by new theories to explain their existence and properties. In the modern era of large surveys tiling the sky at ever high precision and sampling rates, these serendipitous discoveries look set to continue, with recent examples including Boyajian's Star, Fast Radio Bursts and `Oumuamua. Accordingly, we here look ahead and aim to provide a statistical framework for interpreting such events and providing guidance to future observations, under the basic premise that the phenomenon in question stochastically repeat at some unknown, constant rate, $\lambda$. Specifically, expressions are derived for 1) the a-posteriori distribution for $\lambda$, 2) the a-posteriori distribution for the recurrence time, and, 3) the benefit-to-cost ratio of further observations relative to that of the inaugural event. Some rule-of-thumb results for each of these are found to be 1) $\lambda < \{0.7, 2.3, 4.6\}\,t_1^{-1}$ to $\{50, 90, 95\}\%$ confidence (where $t_1=$ time to obtain the first detection), 2) the recurrence time is $t_2 < \{1, 9, 99\}\,t_1$ to $\{50, 90, 95\}\%$ confidence, with a lack of repetition by time $t_2$ yielding a $p$-value of $1/[1+(t_2/t_1)]$, and, 3) follow-up for $\lesssim 10\,t_1$ is expected to be scientifically worthwhile under an array of differing assumptions about the object's intrinsic scientific value. We apply these methods to the Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1 signal and tidal disruption events observed by TESS.