A Multiscale Model for El Ni\~no Complexity

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multiscale stochastic model that explains the complex spatial, intensity, and temporal patterns of ENSO by integrating processes across intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales.

Contribution

It presents a novel three-region multiscale stochastic model that captures ENSO complexity beyond traditional conceptual models.

Findings

Reproduces observed ENSO properties and patterns

Explains intensity variations like extreme El Nios

Accounts for temporal evolution differences such as multi-year La Nis

Abstract

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be explained by combining intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal processes. The model starts with a deterministic three-region system for the interannual variabilities. Then two stochastic processes of the intraseasonal and decadal variation are incorporated. The model can reproduce not only the general properties of the observed ENSO events, but also the complexity in patterns (e.g., Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific events), intensity (e.g., 10-20 year reoccurrence of extreme El Ni\~nos), and temporal evolution (e.g., more multi-year La Ni\~nas than multi-year El Ni\~nos). While conventional conceptual models were typically used to understand the dynamics behind the common properties of ENSO, this model offers a powerful tool to understand and predict ENSO complexity that challenges our understanding of the 21st-century ENSO.