How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

TL;DR

This paper explores how to optimally coordinate COVID-19 vaccination and social distancing strategies using an age-structured model, emphasizing the importance of vaccination prioritization based on contact rates and planning horizon.

Contribution

It introduces an optimization-based control approach to determine vaccination and social distancing strategies considering different planning horizons and age groups.

Findings

Vaccinating high-contact individuals first reduces social distancing needs long-term.

Focusing on high-risk groups is optimal for short-term planning.

Strict social distancing makes prioritizing high-contact groups more effective.

Abstract

Most countries have started vaccinating people against COVID-19. However, due to limited production capacities and logistical challenges it will take months/years until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, vaccination and social distancing have to be coordinated. In this paper, we provide some insight on this topic using optimization-based control on an age-differentiated compartmental model. For real-life decision making, we investigate the impact of the planning horizon on the optimal vaccination/social distancing strategy. We find that in order to reduce social distancing in the long run, without overburdening the healthcare system, it is essential to vaccinate the people with the highest contact rates first. That is also the case if the objective is to minimize fatalities provided that the social distancing measures are sufficiently strict. However, for short-term planning it is optimal to focus on the high-risk group.