Global temperature goals should determine the time horizons for greenhouse gas emission metrics
Sam Abernethy, Robert B. Jackson

TL;DR
This paper introduces a framework linking global temperature goals to emission metric time horizons, demonstrating that current standard horizons underestimate methane's climate impact and proposing a 24-year horizon aligned with the 1.5°C goal.
Contribution
It presents a novel method to determine emission metric time horizons based on specific temperature goals, improving the alignment of metrics with climate targets.
Findings
Time horizons for 1.5°C and 2°C goals are 24 and 58 years respectively.
Current 100-year horizon underestimates methane metrics by 34-87%.
Recommended 24-year horizon aligns with the 1.5°C goal.
Abstract
Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective equivalences between greenhouse gases, currently require a subjective, arbitrary choice of time horizon. Here, we propose a novel framework that uses a specific temperature goal to calculate the time horizon that aligns with scenarios achieving that temperature goal. We analyze the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C Scenario Database to find that time horizons that align with the 1.5 and 2 C global warming goals of the Paris Agreement are 24 [90% prediction interval: 7, 41] and 58 [90% PI: 41, 74] years respectively. We then use these time horizons to quantify time-dependent emission metrics with methane as our main example. We find that the Global Warming Potential values that align with the 1.5 and 2 C goals are GWP1.5 C = 75 [90% PI: 54, 107] and GWP2 C = 42 [90% PI: 35, 54]; for…
Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsClimate Change and Environmental Impact · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Climate Change and Health Impacts
