Post-spontaneous-symmetry-breaking power-laws after a very strong earthquake: Indication for the preparation of a new strong earthquake or not?

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether post-earthquake power-law behaviors in electromagnetic emissions can indicate the potential for subsequent strong earthquakes, using a physics-inspired analysis method and comparing real data with a 3D Ising model.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach to analyze post-earthquake electromagnetic emissions to assess the likelihood of future strong earthquakes, extending previous models to the post-SSB phase.

Findings

Post-SSB power-laws may signal preparation for new strong earthquakes.

The autocorrelation function plays a crucial role in the analysis.

Comparison with the 3D Ising model helps interpret the seismic electromagnetic signals.

Abstract

It has recently been found that the evolution of the preparation of a strong earthquake (EQ), as it is monitored through fracture-induced electromagnetic emissions (EME) in the MHz band, presents striking similarity with the evolution of a thermal system as temperature drops, since distinct steps of the evolution of the phenomenon of spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) can be identified. Here, the study of fracture-induced EME in the MHz band in analogy to thermal systems is extended to the phase of local fracture structures that follow after the SSB (and the occurrence of the main EQ). By comparing fracture-induced MHz EME associated with the strongest EQs (Mw=6.9) that occurred in Greece during the last twenty years with the 3D Ising model, a way to distinguish whether a possible identification of post-SSB power-laws immediately after a very strong EQ is a sign for the preparation of a new strong EQ or not is provided. In the suggested approach, the time series analysis method known as the method of critical fluctuations is used, enhanced by the autocorrelation function, while the role of the latter proves to be decisive.