Triggering of large earthquakes is driven by their twins

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that large earthquakes are more likely triggered by other large events, challenging the conventional focus on small earthquakes and impacting seismic risk assessment and theoretical models.

Contribution

The study introduces a rigorous validation method showing large earthquakes are preferentially triggered by large events, revealing intrinsic magnitude correlations and explaining earthquake doublets.

Findings

Large earthquakes are preferentially triggered by large events.

Intrinsic magnitude correlations explain earthquake doublets.

Implications for seismic risk assessment and theoretical models.

Abstract

Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the prediction of the latter difficult if not inherently impossible. By developing a rigorous validation procedure, we show that, in fact, large earthquakes (above magnitude 6.3 in California) are preferentially triggered by large events. Because of the magnitude correlations intrinsic in the validated model, we further rationalize the existence of earthquake doublets. These findings have far-reaching implications for short-term and medium-term seismic risk assessment, as well as for the development of a deeper theory without UV cut-off that is locally self-similar.