Insight about Detection, Prediction and Weather Impact of Coronavirus (Covid-19) using Neural Network

TL;DR

This paper uses neural networks to detect COVID-19 from chest X-rays with high accuracy and analyzes weather factors' impact on the pandemic, also predicting individual death risk with high precision.

Contribution

It compares multiple pre-trained neural networks for COVID-19 detection and assesses weather factors' influence and individual death prediction models.

Findings

VGG16 and VGG19 achieve over 92% accuracy in classifying X-rays.

Temperature, humidity, and sun-hour explain 85.88% of pandemic escalation.

The death prediction model achieves 94.40% accuracy.

Abstract

The world is facing a tough situation due to the catastrophic pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The number people affected by this virus are increasing exponentially day by day and the number has already crossed 6.4 million. As no vaccine has been discovered yet, the early detection of patients and isolation is the only and most effective way to reduce the spread of the virus. Detecting infected persons from chest X-Ray by using Deep Neural Networks, can be applied as a time and laborsaving solution. In this study, we tried to detect Covid-19 by classification of Covid-19, pneumonia and normal chest X-Rays. We used five different Convolutional Pre-Trained Neural Network models (VGG16, VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3 and Resnet50) and compared their performance. VGG16 and VGG19 shows precise performance in classification. Both models can classify between three kinds of X-Rays with an accuracy over 92%. Another part of our study was to find the impact of weather factors (temperature, humidity, sun hour and wind speed) on this pandemic using Decision Tree Regressor. We found that temperature, humidity and sun-hour jointly hold 85.88% impact on escalation of Covid-19 and 91.89% impact on death due to Covid-19 where humidity has 8.09% impact on death. We also tried to predict the death of an individual based on age, gender, country, and location due to COVID-19 using the LogisticRegression, which can predict death of an individual with a model accuracy of 94.40%.