Models and numbers: Representing the world or imposing order?

TL;DR

This paper critically examines the epistemic foundations of mathematical epidemiological models, emphasizing their role in shaping policy and highlighting the importance of understanding their limitations and power dynamics.

Contribution

It offers a philosophical analysis of models' representational capacities and explores their socio-political implications in public decision-making.

Findings

Models are not truly representational but are designed for specific uses.

Numbers and models carry implicit power relations in policy contexts.

Using models exclusively can impact governance and decision-making.

Abstract

We argue for a foundational epistemic claim and a hypothesis about the production and uses of mathematical epidemiological models, exploring the consequences for our political and socio-economic lives. First, in order to make the best use of scientific models, we need to understand why models are not truly representational of our world, but are already pitched towards various uses. Second, we need to understand the implicit power relations in numbers and models in public policy, and, thus, the implications for good governance if numbers and models are used as the exclusive drivers of decision making.