Watch out for Extrinsic Bugs! A Case Study of their Impact in Just-In-Time Bug Prediction Models on the OpenStack project
Gema Rodriguez-Perez, Meiyappan Nagappan, and Gregorio Robles

TL;DR
This study investigates how extrinsic bugs, caused by external factors, affect the accuracy of Just-In-Time bug prediction models in OpenStack, revealing that excluding extrinsic bugs improves model performance and understanding.
Contribution
The paper provides a manual dataset curation distinguishing intrinsic and extrinsic bugs and demonstrates their differing impacts on bug prediction models.
Findings
Removing extrinsic bugs improves model accuracy by up to 16% AUC.
Intrinsic and extrinsic bugs have different characteristics.
Extrinsic bugs negatively impact JIT bug prediction models.
Abstract
Intrinsic bugs are bugs for which a bug introducing change can be identified in the version control system of a software. In contrast, extrinsic bugs are caused by external changes to a software, such as errors in external APIs; thereby they do not have an explicit bug introducing change in the version control system. Although most previous research literature has assumed that all bugs are of intrinsic nature, in a previous study, we show that not all bugs are intrinsic. This paper shows an example of how considering extrinsic bugs can affect software engineering research. Specifically, we study the impact of extrinsic bugs in Just In Time bug prediction by partially replicating a recent study by McIntosh and Kamei on JIT models. These models are trained using properties of earlier bug-introducing changes. Since extrinsic bugs do not have bug introducing changes in the version control…
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