Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: A literature review

TL;DR

This literature review analyzes the development and application of dynamic transmission models for RSV, highlighting their role in evaluating interventions and identifying gaps in understanding RSV epidemics.

Contribution

First comprehensive review of RSV dynamic transmission models, summarizing their structure, parameters, and results, and emphasizing future research directions.

Findings

RSV DTMs are crucial for evaluating intervention effectiveness.

Current models reveal gaps in understanding RSV transmission dynamics.

Future models should integrate cost-effectiveness analyses.

Abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of <5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.