Examining the Modeling Framework of Crime Hotspot Models in Predictive Policing

TL;DR

This paper critiques the modeling assumptions in crime hotspot models used in predictive policing, highlighting how these assumptions can perpetuate systemic racism and calling for a broader scope of problem formation.

Contribution

It provides a detailed example of crime hotspot modeling and raises critical objections to the scope and implications of current modeling assumptions.

Findings

Modeling assumptions can perpetuate systemic racism

Critical examination of crime hotspot models is necessary

Raises awareness of ethical implications in predictive policing

Abstract

Predictive policing has its roots in crime hotspot modeling. In this paper we give an example of what goes into mathematical crime hot spot modeling and show that the modeling assumptions perpetuate systemic racism in policing. The goal of this paper is to raise objections to this field of research, not on its mathematical merit, but on the scope of the problem formation.