To vote, or not to vote: on the epidemiological impact of electoral campaigns at the time of COVID-19

TL;DR

This study estimates the causal impact of electoral campaigns on COVID-19 spread in Italy, revealing that campaigns significantly worsened the epidemiological situation, emphasizing the need for stringent measures during elections in pandemics.

Contribution

It provides the first causal analysis of electoral campaigns' impact on COVID-19 transmission using exogenous variation in election timing in Italy.

Findings

Electoral campaigns increased COVID-19 cases significantly.

Timing of elections correlates with epidemiological worsening.

Stringent measures are necessary during electoral processes.

Abstract

Elections are crucial for legitimating modern democracies, and giving all candidates the possibility to run a proper electoral campaign is necessary for elections' success in providing such legitimization. Yet, during a pandemic, the risk that electoral campaigns would enhance the spread of the disease exists and is substantive. In this work, we estimate the causal impact of electoral campaigns on the spread of COVID-19. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the schedule of local elections across Italy, we show that the electoral campaign preceding this latter led to a significant worsening of the epidemiological situation related to the disease. Our results strongly highlight the importance of undertaking stringent measures along the entire electoral process to minimize its epidemiological consequences.