Fingerprints of the Cosmic Ray Driven Mechanism of the Ozone Hole

TL;DR

This paper provides strong evidence that cosmic-ray driven electron reactions are a key mechanism behind ozone hole formation, explaining observed data and predicting future ozone recovery timelines under current CR trends.

Contribution

It introduces a CRE equation with two variables that accurately reproduces 40 years of ozone and temperature data, confirming the CRE mechanism's role in ozone depletion.

Findings

CRE mechanism explains 11-year ozone cycle variations

Quantitative estimates show CRE-produced Cl can deplete ozone

Natural CR effects reveal ozone recovery trends since 1995

Abstract

There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even over-kill ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with observed altitude profiles of severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since around 1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by >=10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by around 2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole.