Impact of major hurricanes on electric energy production

TL;DR

This study analyzes the impact of major hurricanes on electric energy production in Caribbean islands, revealing slow recovery, reduced production levels, and the influence of population migration on energy resilience.

Contribution

It provides a detailed characterization of electric production recovery curves and resilience times post-hurricanes, offering predictive insights for future energy management.

Findings

Electric production recovers slowly over 1-5 months to a new equilibrium.

Post-hurricane electric production stabilizes at about 75% of initial levels.

Population migration contributes to further reductions in electric energy production.

Abstract

After major hurricanes, electric production is significantly reduced owing to not only electric infrastructure destruction, but also the economic crisis associated with damage to private and public activities. The full restoration of the electric infrastructure is not always simultaneously performed with the full restoration of electric production. Here, we describe the electric production curves for the islands of Saint-Martin, Saint-Barthelemy, and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean, where two major hurricanes occurred in 2017. After the major hurricanes, the electric energy production was characterised by a slow recovery followed by a stable phase during several months, corresponding to approximately $75\%$ of the initial electric production. A resilience time of several months (1 month $< t_s <$ 5 months) is necessary to attain the new electric energy production equilibrium $E_{is}$, which is lower than the initial electric energy production $E_i$. The reduction in electric energy consumption per capita is of $20-25\%$. In Saint-Martin, during the post-hurricane stable phase, the electric production was only approximately $60\%$ of the initial electric energy production instead of $75\%$. The reduction of 15 percent in the electric production of Saint-Martin after Hurricane Irma could be attributed to the migration of approximately 8 000 inhabitants (approximately $23\%$) outside the island. This approach makes it possible to anticipate the production of electricity during several months after a major hurricane in the Caribbean islands.