Caught in the Act: Core-powered Mass-loss Predictions for Observing Atmospheric Escape

TL;DR

This paper identifies specific exoplanets likely losing their atmospheres today due to core-powered mass-loss, using Bayesian inference on observational data, and highlights planets that may have secondary atmospheres or dense interiors.

Contribution

It presents a Bayesian inference framework to estimate current atmospheric loss rates and planetary properties, identifying candidate planets for atmospheric escape and secondary atmospheres.

Findings

Identified planets potentially losing atmospheres at rates >10^7 g/s.

Predicted planets with secondary atmospheres or dense, icy interiors.

Provided candidate list for future observational follow-up.

Abstract

Past studies have demonstrated that atmospheric escape by the core-powered mass-loss mechanism can explain a multitude of observations associated with the radius valley that separates the super-Earth and sub-Neptune planet populations. Complementing such studies, in this work, we present a shortlist of planets that could be losing their atmospheres today if their evolution is indeed primarily dictated by core-powered mass-loss. We use Bayesian inference analysis on our planet evolution and mass-loss model to estimate the posteriors of the parameters that encapsulate the current state of a given planet, given their published masses, radii and host star properties. Our models predict that the following planets could be losing their atmospheres today at a rate $\gtrsim 10^7$ g/s at 50\% confidence level: pi Men c, Kepler-60 d, Kepler-60 b, HD 86226 c, EPIC 249893012 b, Kepler-107 c, HD 219134 b, Kepler-80 e, Kepler-138 d and GJ 9827 d. As a by-product of our Bayesian inference analysis, we were also able to identify planets that most-likely harbor either secondary atmospheres abundant with high mean-molecular weight species, low-density interiors abundant with ices, or both. The planets belonging to this second category are WASP-47 e, Kepler-78 b, Kepler-10 b, CoRoT-7 b, HD 80653 b, 55 Cnc e and Kepler-36 b. While the aforementioned lists are by no means exhaustive, we believe that candidates presented here can serve as useful input for target selection for future surveys and for testing the importance of core-powered mass-loss in individual planetary systems.