Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter

TL;DR

This paper introduces RESONANCE, a novel adaptive Kalman filter-based method for medium-term prediction of solar radio flux indices F10.7 and F30, improving accuracy for space weather and re-entry forecasting.

Contribution

The paper presents a new prediction framework combining noise reduction, initial forecasting, and adaptive Kalman filtering, outperforming existing methods in accuracy.

Findings

Prediction RMSE for F10.7 is 5-27 sfu for 1-24 months ahead.

Prediction RMSE for F30 is 3-16 sfu for 1-24 months ahead.

Improved predictions enhance re-entry epoch forecasts for space debris.

Abstract

The solar radio flux at F10.7 cm and F30 cm is required by most models characterizing the state of the Earth's upper atmosphere, such as the thermosphere and ionosphere to specify satellite orbits, re-entry services, collision avoidance maneuvers and modeling of space debris evolution. We develop a method called RESONANCE ("Radio Emissions from the Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer-aided Estimator") for the prediction of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean F10.7 and F30 indices 1-24 months ahead. The prediction algorithm includes three steps. First, we apply a 13-month optimized running mean technique to effectively reduce the noise in the radio flux data. Second, we provide initial predictions of the F10.7 and F30 indices using the McNish-Lincoln method. Finally, we improve these initial predictions by developing an adaptive Kalman filter with the error statistics identification. The root-mean-square-error of predictions with lead times from 1 to 24 months is 5-27 sfu for the F10.7 and 3-16 sfu for F30 index, which statistically outperforms current algorithms in use. The proposed approach based on Kalman filter is universal and can be applied to improve the initial predictions of a process under study provided by any other forecasting method. Furthermore, we present a systematic evaluation of re-entry forecast as an application to test the performance of F10.7 predictions on past ESA re-entry campaigns for payloads, rocket bodies, and space debris that re-entered from June 2006 to June 2019. The test results demonstrate that the predictions obtained by RESONANCE in general also lead to improvements in the forecasts of re-entry epochs.