A Study on the Effects of Diffusion of Information on Epidemic Spread

TL;DR

This paper models how information diffusion influences epidemic spread, showing that even limited precautions significantly reduce infection rates, especially when targeting highly connected nodes in the network.

Contribution

It introduces a combined SIR and Bass model approach to study the impact of information-driven precautions on epidemic dynamics in different network structures.

Findings

Limited precautions significantly slow infection spread.

Highly connected hubs are crucial in controlling outbreaks.

Information dissemination can effectively reduce epidemic size.

Abstract

In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community through direct contact interactions. In the meantime, the susceptibles gather information from the adjacent sites which may lead to taking precautions. The SIR model is used for the diffusion of infection while the Bass equation models the information diffusion. The sociological classification of the individuals indicates that a small percentage of the population take action immediately after being informed, while the majority expect to see some real advantage of taking action. The individuals are assumed to take two different precautions. The precursory measures are getting vaccinated or trying to avoid direct contact with the neighbors. A weighted average of states of the neighbors leads to the choice of action. The fully connected and Scale-free Networks are employed as the underlying network of interactions. The comparison between the simple contagion diffusion and the diffusion of infection in a responsive society showed that a very limited precaution makes a considerable difference in the speed and the size of the spread of illness. Particularly highly connected hubs nodes play an essential role in the reduction of the spread of disease.