On the dependence in football match outcomes: traditional model assumptions and an alternative proposal

TL;DR

This paper critiques traditional assumptions in football match outcome models, proposing a modified dependence structure called Mar-Co that improves predictive performance and offers insights into league dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces the Mar-Co model, a novel dependence structure for football outcome modeling that outperforms the Dixon and Coles model in betting scenarios.

Findings

Mar-Co outperforms Dixon and Coles in betting scenarios

Parameter interpretation reveals key league dynamics

Model maintains conceptual simplicity

Abstract

The approaches routinely used to model the outcomes of football matches are characterised by strong assumptions about the dependence between the number of goals scored by the two competing teams and their marginal distribution. In this work, we argue that the assumptions traditionally made are not always based on solid arguments. Although most of these assumptions have been relaxed in the recent literature, the model introduced by Dixon and Coles in 1997 still represents a point of reference in the betting industry. While maintaining its conceptual simplicity, we propose a modification of the dependence structure. A real data application suggests that our model, named Mar-Co, outperforms the Dixon and Coles one in several betting scenarios, and parameter interpretation provides key insights on league dynamics.