A New Assessment Statement for the Trinity Nuclear Test, 75 Years Later

TL;DR

This paper re-evaluates the Trinity nuclear test yield using new measurement techniques and advanced simulations, resulting in a higher estimate of 24.8 kilotons compared to previous assessments.

Contribution

It introduces novel measurement and assessment methods, including mass spectrometry and advanced simulations, to improve the accuracy of nuclear test yield estimation.

Findings

Revised yield estimate of 24.8 kilotons TNT.

Use of combined decay counting and mass spectrometry.

Enhanced assessment accuracy with simulation tools.

Abstract

New measurement and assessment techniques have been applied to the radiochemical re-evaluation of the Trinity Event. Thirteen trinitite samples were dissolved and analyzed using a combination of traditional decay counting methods and the mass spectrometry techniques. The resulting data were assessed using advanced simulation tools to afford a final yield determination of $24.8 \pm 2$ kilotons TNT equivalent, substantially higher than the previous DOE released value of 21 kilotons. This article is intended to complement the work of Susan Hanson and Warren Oldham, seen elsewhere in this issue.