The Effect of Super-spreader Events in Epidemics

TL;DR

This paper investigates how super-spreader events dramatically increase the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) during epidemics, highlighting their significant impact on infection dynamics and modeling in enclosed environments.

Contribution

It introduces a model showing super-spreader events cause $R_0$ to reach hundreds, differing from standard models, and provides expressions linking $R_0$ to physical parameters.

Findings

Super-spreader events can cause $R_0$ to reach hundreds.

Enclosed environment models support these findings.

Impact depends on epidemic stage and subsequent community spread.

Abstract

The spread of infectious epidemics is often accelerated by super-spreader events. Understanding their effect is important, particularly in the context of standard epidemiological models, which require estimates for parameters such as $R_0$. In this letter, we show that the effective value of $R_0$ in super-spreader situations is significantly large, of the order of hundreds, suggesting a delta-function-like behavior during the event. Use of a well-mixed room model supports these findings. They elucidate infection kinetic modeling in enclosed environments, which differ from the standard SIR model, and provide expressions for $R_0$ in terms of physical and operational parameters. The overall impact of super-spreader events can be significant, depending on the state of the epidemic and how the infections generated by the event subsequently spread in the community.