An informed thought experiment exploring the potential for a paradigm shift in aquatic food production

TL;DR

This paper explores the possibility of a paradigm shift from wild fish harvesting to aquaculture, analyzing historical and current trends to envision future societal and environmental impacts of such a transition.

Contribution

It presents a thought experiment comparing the Neolithic Revolution to a potential Blue Revolution in aquaculture, highlighting key drivers and future scenarios.

Findings

Environmental and cultural pressures are driving aquaculture growth.

Two future trajectories are proposed: widespread aquaculture and coexistence with wild fisheries.

Technological, environmental, and globalization factors influence the Blue Revolution's momentum.

Abstract

The Neolithic Revolution began c. 10000 years ago and is characterised by the ultimate, near complete transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural food production on land. The Neolithic Revolution is thought to have been catalysed by a combination of local population pressure, cultural diffusion, property rights and climate change. We undertake a thought experiment that examines trends in these key hypothesised catalysts and patters of today to explore whether society could be on a path towards another paradigm shift in food production: away from hunting of wild fish towards a transition to mostly fish farming. We find similar environmental and cultural pressures have driven the rapid rise of aquaculture, during a period that has now been coined the Blue Revolution, providing impetus for such a transition in coming decades to centuries. We also highlight the interacting and often mutually reinforcing impacts of 1)technological and scientific advancement, 2)environmental awareness and collective action and 3)globalisation and trade influencing the trajectory and momentum of the Blue Revolution. We present two qualitative narratives that broadly fall within two future trajectories: 1)a ubiquitous aquaculture transition and 20commercial aquaculture and fisheries coexistence. This scenarios approach aims to encourage logical, forward thinking, and innovative solutions to complex systems dynamics. Scenario-based thought experiments are useful to explore large scale questions, increase the accessibility to a wider readership and ideally catalyse discussion around proactive governance mechanisms. We argue the future is not fixed and society now has greater foresight and capacity to choose the workable balance between fisheries sand aquaculture that supports economic, environmental, cultural and social objectives through combined planning, policies and management.