Quantification of Bore Path Uncertainty in Borehole Heat Exchanger Arrays

TL;DR

This paper introduces an adaptive stochastic collocation method to quantify how construction inaccuracies in borehole heat exchanger arrays affect their performance, revealing surprising reliability despite potential errors.

Contribution

It applies a novel generalized Smolyak algorithm to model borehole path uncertainties, providing a new statistical tool for geothermal energy system planning.

Findings

Performance remains reliable despite severe construction errors

The generalized Smolyak algorithm effectively quantifies borehole path uncertainty

Method offers valuable insights for system viability under uncertainty

Abstract

Borehole heat exchanger arrays have become a common implement for the utilization of thermal energy in the soil. Building these facilities is expensive, especially the drilling of boreholes, into which closed-pipe heat exchangers are inserted. Therefore, cost-reducing drilling methods are common practice, which can produce inaccuracies of varying degree. This brings into question how much these inaccuracies could potentially affect the performance of a planned system. In the presented case study, an uncertainty quantification for seasonally operated borehole heat exchanger arrays is performed to analyze the bore paths' deviations impact. We introduce an adaptive, anisotropic stochastic collocation method, known as the generalized Smolyak algorithm, which was previously unused in this context and apply it to a numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger array. Our results show that the borehole heat exchanger array performance is surprisingly reliable even with potentially severe implementation errors during their construction. This, coupled with the potential uses of the presented method in similar applications gives planners and investors valuable information regarding the viability of borehole heat exchanger arrays in the face of uncertainty. With this paper, we hope to provide a powerful statistical tool to the field of geothermal energy, in which uncertainty quantification methods are still rarely used at this point. The discussed case study represents a jumping-off point for further investigations on the effects of uncertainty on borehole heat exchanger arrays and borehole thermal energy storage systems.