Survival of the Fittest: Numerical Modeling of Supernova 2014C

TL;DR

This paper uses numerical simulations and genetic algorithms to model the interaction of supernova SN 2014C with a massive shell, revealing its structure, origin, and future evolution based on X-ray observations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel coupling of genetic algorithms with hydrodynamic and radiation transfer codes to precisely determine supernova shell properties.

Findings

Shell mass of 2.6 solar masses

Shell ejected approximately 60 years before explosion

SN expected to break out from the shell by mid 2022

Abstract

Initially classified as a supernova (SN) type Ib, $\sim$ 100 days after the explosion SN\,2014C made a transition to a SN type II, presenting a gradual increase in the H${\alpha}$ emission. This has been interpreted as evidence of interaction between the supernova shock wave and a massive shell previously ejected from the progenitor star. In this paper, we present numerical simulations of the propagation of the SN shock through the progenitor star and its wind, as well as the interaction of the SN ejecta with the massive shell. To determine with high precision the structure and location of the shell, we couple a genetic algorithm to a hydrodynamic and a bremsstrahlung radiation transfer code. We iteratively modify the density stratification and location of the shell by minimizing the variance between X-ray observations and synthetic predictions computed from the numerical model. By assuming spherical symmetry, we found that the shell has a mass of 2.6 M$_\odot$, extends from 1.6 $\times 10^{16}$ cm to $1.87 \times 10^{17}$ cm, implying that it was ejected $\sim 60/(v_w/100 {\rm \; km \; s^{-1}})$ yrs before the SN explosion, and has a density stratification decaying as $\sim r^{-3}$. We found that the product of metallicity by the ionization fraction (due to photo-ionization by the post-shock X-ray emission) %and/or the SN UV radiation is $\sim$ 0.5. Finally, we predict that, if the density stratification follows the same power-law behaviour, the SN will break out from the shell by mid 2022, i.e. 8.5 years after explosion.