Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility

TL;DR

This paper introduces a theoretical framework combining heterogeneous contact patterns and recurrent mobility in epidemic models, validated by simulations, to better understand disease spread and critical thresholds in complex populations.

Contribution

It develops a set of Markovian equations that incorporate contact heterogeneity and mobility, providing analytical insights into epidemic thresholds and mechanisms.

Findings

Derived an analytical epidemic threshold expression

Validated the model with extensive simulations

Identified key factors influencing epidemic spread

Abstract

Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both the heterogeneity of human contacts and the complexity of mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework that allows accommodating these two aspects in the form of a set of Markovian equations. We validate these equations with extensive mechanistic simulations and derive analytically the epidemic threshold. The expression of this critical value allows us to evaluate its dependence on the specific demographic distribution, the structure of mobility flows, and the heterogeneity of contact patterns, thus shedding light on the microscopic mechanisms responsible for the epidemic detriment driven by recurrent mobility patterns reported in the literature.