The spread of COVID-19 at Hot-Temperature Places With Different Curfew Situations Using Copula Models

TL;DR

This study uses copula models to analyze the complex relationship between high temperatures, social isolation, and COVID-19 spread, revealing minimal temperature effects and highlighting the importance of lockdown measures.

Contribution

It introduces the first application of copula models to COVID-19 transmission analysis, capturing non-linear relationships and effects of social policies.

Findings

Weak to moderate temperature effect on infections

Lockdown policies diminish temperature impact

Social isolation strongly influences virus transmission

Abstract

The infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a serious global pandemic. Different studies have shown that increasing temperature can play a crucial role in the spread of the virus. Most of these studies were limited to winter or moderate temperature levels and were conducted using conventional models. However, traditional models are too simplistic to investigate complex, non-linear relationships and suffer from some restrictions. Therefore, we employed copula models to examine the impact of high temperatures on virus transmission. The findings from the copula models showed that there was a weak to moderate effect of temperature on the number of infections and the effect almost vanished under a lockdown policy. Therefore, this study provides new insight into the relationship between COVID-19 and temperature, both with and without social isolation practices. Such results can lead to improvements in our understanding of this new virus. In particular, the results derived from the copula models examined here, unlike existing traditional models, provide evidence that there is no substantial influence of high temperatures on the active COVID-19 outbreak situation. In addition, the results indicate that the transmission of COVID-19 is strongly influenced by social isolation practices. To the best of the author knowledge, this is the first copula model investigation applied to the COVID-19 pandemic.