Numerical study of COVID-19 spatial-temporal spreading in London

TL;DR

This study models the spread of COVID-19 aerosols in London, revealing how the virus can travel meters to hundreds of meters, with implications for infection control in urban environments.

Contribution

It provides a detailed numerical analysis of COVID-19 aerosol dispersion in urban settings under various meteorological conditions, a novel focus in spatial-temporal modeling.

Findings

Virus can travel up to hundreds of meters from the source.

Viruses near entry/exit points at stations remain within 50 meters.

Different doors at hospitals pose varying infection risks.

Abstract

Recent study reported that an aerosolised virus (COVID-19) can survive in the air for a few hours. It is highly possible that people get infected with the disease by breathing and contact with items contaminated by the aerosolised virus. However, the aerosolised virus transmission and trajectories in various meteorological environments remain unclear. This paper has investigated the movement of aerosolised viruses from a high concentration source across a dense urban area. The case study looks at the highly air polluted areas of London: University College Hospital (UCH) and King Cross and St Pancras International Station (KCSPI). We explored the spread and decay of COVID-19 released from the hospital and railway stations with the prescribed meteorological conditions. The study has three key findings: the primary result is that it is possible for the virus to travel from meters up to hundred meters from the source location. The secondary finding shows viruses released into the atmosphere from entry and exit points at KCSPI remain trapped within a small radial distance of < 50m. This strengthens the case for the use of face coverings to reduce the infection rate. The final finding shows that there are different levels of risk at various door locations for UCH, depending on which door is used there can be a higher concentration of COVID-19. Although our results are based on London, since the fundamental knowledge processes are the same, our study can be further extended to other locations (especially the highly air polluted areas) in the world.