Is preprint the future of science? A thirty year journey of online preprint services

TL;DR

Preprints have exponentially grown over 30 years, significantly accelerating dissemination, increasing citations, and playing a crucial role in rapid scientific communication, despite initial quality concerns.

Contribution

This study provides a comprehensive quantitative analysis of preprint evolution, impact, and quality over three decades, highlighting their growing importance in scholarly communication.

Findings

Preprints increased 63-fold in 30 years.

Preprints reach audiences 14 months earlier on average.

41% of preprints are eventually peer-reviewed and published.

Abstract

Preprint is a version of a scientific paper that is publicly distributed preceding formal peer review. Since the launch of arXiv in 1991, preprints have been increasingly distributed over the Internet as opposed to paper copies. It allows open online access to disseminate the original research within a few days, often at a very low operating cost. This work overviews how preprint has been evolving and impacting the research community over the past thirty years alongside the growth of the Web. In this work, we first report that the number of preprints has exponentially increased 63 times in 30 years, although it only accounts for 4% of research articles. Second, we quantify the benefits that preprints bring to authors: preprints reach an audience 14 months earlier on average and associate with five times more citations compared with a non-preprint counterpart. Last, to address the quality concern of preprints, we discover that 41% of preprints are ultimately published at a peer-reviewed destination, and the published venues are as influential as papers without a preprint version. Additionally, we discuss the unprecedented role of preprints in communicating the latest research data during recent public health emergencies. In conclusion, we provide quantitative evidence to unveil the positive impact of preprints on individual researchers and the community. Preprints make scholarly communication more efficient by disseminating scientific discoveries more rapidly and widely with the aid of Web technologies. The measurements we present in this study can help researchers and policymakers make informed decisions about how to effectively use and responsibly embrace a preprint culture.