Value of Information for Argumentation based Intelligence Analysis

TL;DR

This paper introduces a method to evaluate the importance of arguments within argumentation frameworks to enhance decision-making in intelligence analysis, focusing on maritime domain scenarios.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach to quantify the value of information in argument frameworks, aiding analysts in prioritizing intelligence collection efforts.

Findings

Identifies the most valuable arguments in a framework

Demonstrates the approach in maritime intelligence analysis

Helps balance information value against collection costs

Abstract

Argumentation provides a representation of arguments and attacks between these arguments. Argumentation can be used to represent a reasoning process over evidence to reach conclusions. Within such a reasoning process, understanding the value of information can improve the quality of decision making based on the output of the reasoning process. The value of an item of information is inherently dependent on the available evidence and the question being answered by the reasoning. In this paper we introduce a value of information on argument frameworks to identify the most valuable arguments within the finite set of arguments in the framework, and the arguments and attacks which could be added to change the output of an evaluation. We demonstrate the value of information within an argument framework representing an intelligence analysis in the maritime domain. Understanding the value of information in an intelligence analysis will allow analysts to balance the value against the costs and risks of collection, to effectively request further collection of intelligence to increase the confidence in the analysis of hypotheses.