Biases in parameter estimation from overlapping gravitational-wave signals in the third generation detector era

TL;DR

This paper investigates how overlapping gravitational-wave signals in future third-generation detectors can cause biases in parameter estimation, identifying scenarios where current methods may fail and highlighting areas for methodological improvements.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the frequency of overlapping signals in third-generation detectors and assesses the impact on parameter estimation accuracy.

Findings

Overlapping signals are common in third-generation detectors, with tens of overlaps per binary neutron star event.

Most parameter estimates remain unbiased, but certain overlaps can cause significant biases.

Identifies specific conditions where current estimation methods need improvement.

Abstract

In the past few years, the detection of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences with the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors has become routine. Future observatories will detect even larger numbers of gravitational-wave signals, which will also spend a longer time in the detectors' sensitive band. This will eventually lead to overlapping signals, especially in the case of Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE). Using realistic distributions for the merger rate as a function of redshift as well as for component masses in binary neutron star and binary black hole coalescences, we map out how often signal overlaps of various types will occur in an ET-CE network over the course of a year. We find that a binary neutron star signal will typically have tens of overlapping binary black hole and binary neutron star signals. Moreover, it will happen up to tens of thousands of times per year that two signals will have their end times within seconds of each other. In order to understand to what extent this would lead to measurement biases with current parameter estimation methodology, we perform injection studies with overlapping signals from binary black hole and/or binary neutron star coalescences. Varying the signal-to-noise ratios, the durations of overlap, and the kinds of overlapping signals, we find that in most scenarios the intrinsic parameters can be recovered with negligible bias. However, biases do occur for a short binary black hole or a quieter binary neutron star signal overlapping with a long and louder binary neutron star event when the merger times are sufficiently close. Hence our studies show where improvements are required to ensure reliable estimation of source parameters for all detected compact binary signals as we go from second-generation to third-generation detectors.