Bipartisan politics and poverty as a risk factor for contagion and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States of America

TL;DR

This study analyzes how social determinants like poverty and political affiliation influence COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in the US, revealing significant correlations and highlighting socioeconomic inequalities.

Contribution

It employs machine learning and structural equation modeling to quantify the impact of social determinants on COVID-19 outcomes in different US states and political groups.

Findings

Poverty is a main risk factor for COVID-19 infection and death.

States with higher uninsured populations show higher contagion rates.

Political affiliation correlates with differences in COVID-19 impact.

Abstract

In the United States, from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to December 31, 2020, 341,199 deaths and more than 19,663,976 infections were recorded. Recent literature establishes that communities with poverty-related health problems, such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension, are more susceptible to mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Additionally, controversial public health policies implemented by the nation's political leaders have highlighted the socioeconomic inequalities of minorities. Therefore, through multivariate correlational analysis using machine learning techniques and structural equations, we measure whether social determinants are associated with increased infection and death from COVID-19 disease. The PLS least squares regression analysis allowed identifying a significant impact between social determinants and COVID-19 disease through a predictive value of R2 = .916, \b{eta} = .836, p =. 000 (t-value = 66,137) shows that for each unit of increase in social determinants, COVID-19 disease increases by 91.6%. The clustering index used for correlational analysis generated a new data set comprising three groups: C1 Republicans, C2 and C3 Democrats from California, New York, Texas, and Florida. This analysis made it possible to identify the poverty variable as the main risk factor related to the high rates of infection in Republican states and a high positive correlation between the population not insured with a medical plan and high levels of virus contagion in the states of group C3. These findings explain the argument that poverty and lack of economic security put the public or private health system at risk and calamity.