COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: Lessons for the Vaccination Campaign

TL;DR

This study examines how mobility restrictions during COVID-19 in Italy affected excess deaths and unemployment, suggesting vaccination prioritization strategies to mitigate economic and health impacts.

Contribution

It links mobility reduction to mortality and unemployment effects, providing policy insights for vaccination prioritization based on economic and health data.

Findings

A 10% mobility reduction reduces mortality by 5%.

Mobility contraction increases furloughed workers by 50%.

Results inform vaccination policies to balance health and employment risks.

Abstract

Assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and public health policies is essential for a rapid recovery. In this paper, we analyze the impact of mobility contraction on furloughed workers and excess deaths in Italy. We provide a link between the reduction of mobility and excess deaths, confirming that the first countrywide lockdown has been effective in curtailing the COVID-19 epidemics. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 10% leads to a mortality reduction of 5% whereas it leads to an increase of 50% in full time equivalent furloughed workers. Based on our results, we propose a prioritizing policy for the most advanced stage of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, considering the unemployment risk of the healthy active population. Keywords: COVID-19 mortality; Furlough schemes; Economic impact of lockdowns; Vaccination rollout: Unemployment risk