How the Massachusetts Assault Weapons Ban Enforcement Notice Changed Firearm Sales

TL;DR

The paper examines how a 2016 enforcement notice in Massachusetts significantly increased assault rifle sales initially, then decreased them, indicating rapid market response and partial compliance with firearm restrictions.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the immediate and longer-term effects of policy interpretation changes on firearm sales and market behavior.

Findings

616% increase in assault rifle sales in 5 days

28-30% decline in assault rifle sales in 2017

Sales concentrated in higher-income, predominantly white zip codes

Abstract

The Massachusetts Attorney General issued an Enforcement Notice in 2016 to announce a new interpretation of a key phrase in the state's assault weapons ban. The Enforcement Notice increased sales of tagged assault rifles by 616% in the first 5 days, followed by a 9% decrease over the next three weeks. Sales of Handguns and Shotguns did not change significantly. Tagged assault rifle sales fell 28-30% in 2017 compared to previous years, suggesting that the Enforcement Notice reduced assault weapon sales but also that many banned weapons continued to be sold. Tagged assault rifles sold most in 2017 in zip codes with higher household incomes and proportions of white males. Overall, the results suggest that the firearm market reacts rapidly to policy changes and partially complies with firearm restrictions.