Climate network and complexity based El Ni\~no forecast for 2022

TL;DR

This paper presents two novel approaches for early El Niño forecasting, one predicting the event's onset a year in advance and the other estimating its magnitude within the same year, demonstrated with 2022 forecasts.

Contribution

It introduces climate network and complexity-based methods for El Niño prediction, enhancing forecast lead time and magnitude estimation capabilities.

Findings

Forecasts for 2022 provided by both methods.

Climate network approach predicts El Niño onset about 1 year ahead.

Complexity approach estimates El Niño magnitude within the same year.

Abstract

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Ni\~no. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Ni\~no event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Ni\~no event in the calendar year before. Here we communicate the forecasts of both methods for 2022.