The Impacts of the Gender Imbalance on the Marriage Market: Evidence from World War II in Japan

TL;DR

This paper investigates how WWII-induced gender imbalances in Japan affected marriage outcomes, revealing that male scarcity strengthened men's bargaining power, reduced women's marriage likelihood, and impacted remarriage, especially for widows.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the effects of wartime gender imbalance on marriage market dynamics using newly digitized historical census data.

Findings

Men had stronger bargaining power in marriage decisions.

Women were less likely to marry during male scarcity periods.

Widowed women faced significant barriers to remarriage.

Abstract

This study uses the unprecedented changes in the sex ratio due to the losses of men during World War II to identify the impacts of the gender imbalance on marriage market outcomes in Japan. Using newly digitized census-based historical statistics, we find evidence that men have a stronger bargaining position in the marriage market than women do. Under the conditions of relative male scarcity, women are less likely to marry. Although the entry of younger cohorts with a natural gender balance into the marriage market attenuated its magnitude, this tendency persisted until the mid-1950s. Widowed women facing male scarcity are particularly unable to remarry. Our results suggest that reinstating military pensions in the early 1950s further reduced their incentive to remarry.