Quantifying the Global Support Network for Non-State Armed Groups (NAGs)

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the global network of support between non-state armed groups and host states from 1945 to 2010, revealing ecological-like structures and dynamics that inform intervention strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis of the NAG-HS support network, uncovering ecological parallels, network architecture, and actor roles over a 65-year period.

Findings

Nested and modular network structure identified

Highly connected actors are more likely to gain or lose support

Major regional modules show significant membership turnover

Abstract

Human history has been shaped by armed conflicts. Rather than large-scale interstate wars, low-intensity attacks have been more prevalent in the post-World War era. These attacks are often carried out by non-state armed groups (NAGs), which are supported by host states (HSs). We analyze the global bipartite network of NAG-HS support and its evolution over the period of 1945-2010. We find striking parallels to ecological networks such as mutualistic and parasitic forms of support, and a nested and modular network architecture. The nestedness emerges from preferential behaviors: highly connected players are more likely to both gain and lose connections. Long-persisting major modules are identified, reflecting both regional and trans-regional interests, which show significant turnover in their membership, contrary to the transitory ones. Revealing this architecture further enables the identification of actor's roles and provide insights for effective intervention strategies.