COVID-19 propagation by diffusion -- a two-dimensional approach for Germany

TL;DR

This paper models COVID-19 spread in Germany using a two-dimensional diffusion approach, linking regional population density and incidence rates to diffusion processes to better understand pandemic dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a diffusion-based model to describe COVID-19 propagation across German federal states, considering regional population density differences.

Findings

Higher incidence in urban areas correlates with higher population density.

Diffusion model captures regional differences in COVID-19 spread.

Potential for diffusion models to inform public health strategies.

Abstract

Diffusion comes anytime and everywhere. If there is a gradient or a potential difference of a quantity a diffusion process happens and this ends if an equilibrium is reached only. The concentration of a species maybe such quantity, or the voltage. An electric currant will be driven by a voltage difference for example. In this COVID-19 pandemic one observes both regions with low incidence and other ones with high incidence. The local different people density could be a reason for that. In populous areas like big cities or congested urban areas higher COVID-19 incidences could be observed than in rural regions. The aim of this paper consists in the application of a diffusion concept to describe one possible issue of the the COVID-19 propagation. This will be discussed for the German situation based on the quite different incidence data for the different federal states of Germany.