Modelling the Impact of Scandals: the case of the 2017 French Presidential Election

TL;DR

This paper develops an agent-based simulation of the 2017 French presidential election to study how scandals and media influence voter behavior and election outcomes, highlighting increased abstention due to scandals.

Contribution

It introduces a novel simulation model incorporating scandals and media effects, using real-world data to analyze their impact on election results.

Findings

Scandals increase voter abstention.

Media coverage influences candidate support.

Simulation replicates observed election dynamics.

Abstract

This paper proposes an agent-based simulation of a presidential election, inspired by the French 2017 presidential election. The simulation is based on data extracted from polls, media coverage, and Twitter. The main contribution is to consider the impact of scandals and media bashing on the result of the election. In particular, it is shown that scandals can lead to higher abstention at the election, as voters have no relevant candidate left to vote for. The simulation is implemented in Unity 3D and is available to play online.