Can a patchy model describe the potential spread of West Nile virus in Germany?

TL;DR

This paper develops a patchy metapopulation network model to simulate and evaluate the potential spread of West Nile Virus in Germany, considering bird and mosquito movements and dispersal patterns.

Contribution

It introduces a novel spatially explicit model incorporating short and long range dispersal kernels for vectors and hosts, capturing complex movement patterns of WNV spread.

Findings

Model predicts potential spatial distribution of WNV in Germany.

Incorporates temperature-dependent mosquito activity.

Accounts for bird migration and dispersal patterns.

Abstract

In 2018, West Nile Virus (WNV) was detected for the first time in Germany. Since the first detection, 36 human cases and 175 cases in horses and birds are detected. The transmission cycle of West Nile Virus includes birds and mosquitoes and -- as dead-end hosts -- people and horses. Spatial dissemination of the disease is caused by the movements of birds and mosquitoes. While the activity and movement of mosquitoes are depending mainly on temperature, in the birds there is a complex movement pattern caused by local birds and long range dispersal birds. To this end, we have developed a metapopulation network model framework to delineate the potential spatial distribution and spread of WNV across Germany as well as to evaluate the risk throughout our proposed network model. Our model facilitates the interconnection amongst the vector, local birds and long range dispersal birds contact networks. We have assumed different distance dispersal kernels models for the vector and avian populations with the intention to include short and long range dispersal. The model includes spatial variation of mosquito abundance and the movements to resemble the reality.