Decreasing water budget of the Australian continent from Grace satellite gravity data

TL;DR

This study uses satellite gravity data from Grace missions (2002-2020) to quantify declining water storage across Australian basins, highlighting significant water loss trends linked to climate change and droughts.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive satellite-based assessment of long-term water storage decline across Australian basins, including the Murray-Darling, over nearly two decades.

Findings

Negative geoid anomaly trend of -1.5mm indicating water loss

Average water loss rate of -0.91 Gt per year in the Murray-Darling Basin

Most Australian basins show declining total water storage except northern Australia.

Abstract

Increasing aridification of continental areas due to global climate change has impacted freshwater availability, particularly in extremely dry landmasses, such as Australia. Multiple demands on water resources require integrated basin management approaches, necessitating knowledge of total water storage, and changes in water mass. Such monitoring is not practical at continental scales using traditional methods. Satellite gravity has proven successful at documenting changes in total water mass at regional scales, and here we use data from the Grace and Grace-FO missions, spanning 2002 - 2020, to track regional water budget trends in Australia most heavily utilised basin systems, including the Murray-Darling Basin. The period of analysis covers the Millennium drought (2002-2009) and 2010-11 heavy flooding events, which contribute significant signal variability. However our extended datasets demonstrate a negative trend in the geoid anomaly over the Murray-Darling Basin of -1.5mm, equivalent to a water loss rate of -0.91 Gt yr-1. With the exception of northern Australia, similar scale geoid declines are observed in most Australian basin systems analysed - implying declining total water storage. Long-term declines in water availability require concerted management plans, balancing the requirements of agriculture and industry, with domestic use, traditional owners, and healthy freshwater ecosystems.