Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the robustness of the international oil trade network against targeted attacks on key economies, revealing increased vulnerability and emphasizing the importance of influence-based strategies for maintaining trade stability.

Contribution

It introduces a new framework for assessing oil trade network robustness using topological indices and simulates targeted attacks to identify critical economies affecting global trade stability.

Findings

The global oil trade network has become more vulnerable in recent years.

Regional aggregation increases the network's vulnerability.

Influence of major organizations like OPEC and OECD on the network is declining.

Abstract

In the international oil trade network (iOTN), trade shocks triggered by extreme events may spread over the entire network along the trade links of the central economies and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. In this study, we focus on the concept of "too central to fail" and use traditional centrality indicators as strategic indicators for simulating attacks on economic nodes, and simulates various situations in which the structure and function of the global oil trade network are lost when the economies suffer extreme trade shocks. The simulation results show that the global oil trade system has become more vulnerable in recent years. The regional aggregation of oil trade is an essential source of iOTN's vulnerability. Maintaining global oil trade stability and security requires a focus on economies with greater influence within the network module of the iOTN. International organizations such as OPEC and OECD established more trade links around the world, but their influence on the iOTN is declining. We improve the framework of oil security and trade risk assessment based on the topological index of iOTN, and provide a reference for finding methods to maintain network robustness and trade stability.