Kinetic derivation of a time-dependent SEIRD reaction-diffusion system for COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper derives a time-dependent SEIRD reaction-diffusion model for COVID-19 from a kinetic micro-scale perspective, introducing a numerical scheme and validating it with Moroccan data.

Contribution

It presents a novel kinetic derivation of the SEIRD model from individual-based micro-scale equations for COVID-19.

Findings

Validated the model with numerical tests on Moroccan data.

Developed an asymptotic-preserving numerical scheme.

Provided insights into COVID-19 spread dynamics.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Died (SEIRD) reaction-diffusion system for the COVID-19 pandemic and we deal with its derivation from a kinetic model. The derivation is obtained by mathematical description delivered at the micro-scale of individuals. Our approach is based on the micro-macro decomposition which leads to an equivalent formulation of the kinetic model which couples the microscopic equations with the macroscopic equations. We develop a numerical asymptotic preservation scheme to solve the kinetic model. The proposed approach is validated by various numerical tests where particular attention is paid to the Moroccan situation against the actual pandemic.