Potential Early Markets for Fusion Energy

TL;DR

This paper analyzes potential early markets for fusion energy by examining cost targets and market scenarios, suggesting initial focus on high-priced electricity markets and exploring revenue-increasing strategies.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of early market opportunities for fusion energy, incorporating recent studies and various future scenarios to guide deployment strategies.

Findings

Fusion should target high-priced electricity markets initially.

Integrated thermal storage can enhance competitiveness.

Fusion's levelized cost must fall below 50 \/MWh for process heat and hydrogen markets.

Abstract

We identify potential early markets for fusion energy and their projected cost targets, based on analysis and synthesis of many relevant, recent studies and reports. Because private fusion companies aspire to start commercial deployment before 2040, we examine cost requirements for fusion-generated electricity, process heat, and hydrogen production based on today's market prices but with various adjustments relating to possible scenarios in 2035, such as "business-as-usual," high renewables penetration, and carbon pricing up to 100 \$/tCO$_2$. Key findings are that fusion developers should consider focusing initially on high-priced global electricity markets and including integrated thermal storage in order to maximize revenue and compete in markets with high renewables penetration. Process heat and hydrogen production will be tough early markets for fusion, but may open up to fusion as markets evolve and if fusion's levelized cost of electricity falls below 50 \$/MWh$_\mathrm{e}$. Finally, we discuss potential ways for a fusion plant to increase revenue via cogeneration (e.g., desalination, direct air capture, or district heating) and to lower capital costs (e.g., by minimizing construction times and interest or by retrofitting coal plants).