Estimation of the Distribution of the Individual Reproduction Number: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

TL;DR

This paper develops methods to estimate the distribution of individual reproduction numbers during COVID-19, accounting for under-reporting and variability, using German regional data to inform policy decisions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel estimation approach for the negative binomial distribution parameters of reproduction numbers, incorporating under-reporting and regional data analysis.

Findings

Strong overdispersion of individual reproduction numbers in Germany

Estimates of mean and variance inform understanding of pandemic dynamics

Methodology enables construction of confidence intervals for reproduction number parameters

Abstract

We investigate the problem of estimating the distribution of the individual reproduction number governing the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that this random variable follows a Negative Binomial distribution, we focus on constructing estimators of the parameters of this distribution using reported infection data and taking into account issues like under-reporting or the time behavior of the infection and of the reporting processes. To this end, we extract information from regionally dissaggregated data reported by German health authorities, in order to estimate not only the mean but also the variance of the distribution of the individual reproduction number. In contrast to the mean, the latter parameter also depends on the unknown under-reporting rate of the pandemic. The estimates obtained allow not only for a better understanding of the time-varying behavior of the expected value of the individual reproduction number but also of its dispersion, for the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals and for a discussion of the implications of different policy interventions. Our methodological investigations are accompanied by an empirical study of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, which shows a strong overdispersion of the individual reproduction number.