On asymptotic joint distributions of cherries and pitchforks for random phylogenetic trees

TL;DR

This paper establishes limit theorems for the joint distribution of cherries and pitchforks in random phylogenetic trees, revealing their asymptotic independence across common models, enhancing understanding of tree shape statistics.

Contribution

Develops strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for joint distributions of subtree counts in phylogenetic trees using extended Pólya urn models.

Findings

Asymptotic distributions are independent of initial trees.

Joint distributions follow strong laws of large numbers.

Central limit theorems describe fluctuations around the mean.

Abstract

Tree shape statistics provide valuable quantitative insights into evolutionary mechanisms underpinning phylogenetic trees, a commonly used graph representation of evolution systems ranging from viruses to species. By developing limit theorems for a version of extended P\'olya urn models in which negative entries are permitted for their replacement matrices, we present strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for asymptotic joint distributions of two subtree counting statistics, the number of cherries and that of pitchforks, for random phylogenetic trees generated by two widely used null tree models: the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) and the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) models. Our results indicate that the limiting behaviour of these two statistics, when appropriately scaled, are independent of the initial trees used in the tree generating process.