Searching for signatures of chaos in gamma-ray light curves of selected Fermi-LAT blazars

TL;DR

This study rigorously analyzed gamma-ray light curves of 11 blazars using nonlinear time series methods and found no evidence of chaos, suggesting blazar variability is either stochastic or governed by high-dimensional chaos.

Contribution

It is the first comprehensive nonlinear analysis of Fermi-LAT blazar light curves to search for chaos signatures, clarifying the nature of blazar variability.

Findings

No signs of chaos detected in any blazar light curves.

Blazar variability appears to be stochastic or high-dimensional.

Results constrain models of blazar emission mechanisms.

Abstract

Blazar variability appears to be stochastic in nature. However, a possibility of low-dimensional chaos was considered in the past, but with no unambiguous detection so far. If present, it would constrain the emission mechanism by suggesting an underlying dynamical system. We rigorously searched for signatures of chaos in Fermi-Large Area Telescope light curves of 11 blazars. The data were comprehensively investigated using the methods of nonlinear time series analysis: phase-space reconstruction, fractal dimension, maximal Lyapunov exponent (mLE). We tested several possible parameters affecting the outcomes, in particular the mLE, in order to verify the spuriousness of the outcomes. We found no signs of chaos in any of the analyzed blazars. Blazar variability is either truly stochastic in nature, or governed by high-dimensional chaos that can often resemble randomness.