Early-life Income Shocks and Old-Age Cause-Specific Mortality

TL;DR

This study reveals that income shocks during early childhood, measured by GDP fluctuations, significantly influence cause-specific mortality rates in old age, highlighting long-term health impacts of early economic conditions.

Contribution

It provides causal evidence linking early-life income shocks to specific causes of old-age mortality using comprehensive US death records and macroeconomic data.

Findings

A 1% decrease in birth-year GDP increases old-age mortality from malignant neoplasms by 2.2%.

Early-life income shocks are significantly associated with higher mortality from cardiovascular diseases.

The study quantifies the long-term health effects of macroeconomic fluctuations during early childhood.

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship between income shocks during the first years of life and adulthood mortality due to specific causes of death. Using all death records in the United States during 1968-2004 for individuals who were born in the first half of the 20th century, we document a sizable and statistically significant association between income shocks early in life, proxied by GDP per capita fluctuations, and old age cause-specific mortality. Conditional on individual characteristics and controlling for a broad array of current and early-life conditions, we find that a 1 percent decrease in the aggregate business cycle in the year of birth is associated with 2.2, 2.3, 3.1, 3.7, 0.9, and 2.1 percent increase in the likelihood of mortality in old ages due to malignant neoplasms, Diabetes Mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, Influenza, chronic respiratory diseases, and all other diseases, respectively.