Finite System-Size Effects in Self-Organized Criticality Systems

TL;DR

This paper investigates the upper limits of extreme events in self-organized criticality systems across various natural and societal phenomena, revealing finite size effects and correlations with system parameters.

Contribution

It generalizes power law distributions to account for finite system-size effects and extreme events, providing a unified framework for diverse SOC systems.

Findings

Solar flare durations have an upper limit of <6 hours.

Stellar flares exhibit finite energy ranges and extreme events up to 5×10^38 erg.

Maximum flare energy correlates positively with stellar radius.

Abstract

We explore upper limits for the largest avalanches or catastrophes in nonlinear energy dissipation systems governed by self-organized criticality (SOC). We generalize the idealized "straight" power low size distribution and Pareto distribution functions in order to accomodate for incomplete sampling, limited instrumental sensitivity, finite system-size effects, "Black-Swan" and "Dragon-King" extreme events. Our findings are: (i) Solar flares show no finite system-size limits up to L < 200 Mm, but solar flare durations reveal an upper flare duration limit of < 6 hrs; (ii) Stellar flares observed with KEPLER exhibit inertial ranges of $E \approx 10^{34}-10^{37}$ erg, finite system-size ranges at $E \approx 10^{37}-10^{38}$ erg, and extreme events at $E =(1-5) \times 10^{38}$ erg; (iii) The maximum flare energy of different spectral-type stars (M, K, G, F, A, Giants) reveal a positive correlation with the stellar radius, which indicates a finite system-size limit imposed by the stellar surface area. Fitting our finite system-size models to terrestrial data sets (Earth quakes, wildfires, city sizes, blackouts, terrorism, words, surnames, web-links) yields evidence (in half of the cases) for finite system-size limits and extreme events, which can be modeled with dual power law size distributions.