Alleviating Vulnerabilities of the Possible Outbreaks of Measles: A Data Trend Analysis and Prediction of Possible Cases

TL;DR

This study analyzes measles trends in the Philippines using ARIMA models to forecast future cases, highlighting the importance of intervention strategies despite a predicted decline in disease occurrence.

Contribution

It applies time series analysis with ARIMA to forecast measles cases in the Philippines, providing insights for public health planning.

Findings

Increasing trend from 2016 to 2019

Forecasted decline over five years

Projected cases remain above 15,000

Abstract

Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the time series data for trend analysis and data forecasting using the ARIMA model to visualize the measles cases. Figures for the time-series and forecasted results are individually presented with the use of GRETL software. Results showed that there was an increasing pattern of the disease from 2016 to 2019. However, there was a decreasing pattern of its occurrence in the next five years based on the five-year forecast. Nevertheless, with the results of the study, there is still a need to improve the different intervention plans of the authority in alleviating the occurrence of the disease though it yielded a decreasing pattern in the future since it is evident that the figure of the forecasted data is still approximately 15,000 and above.